23 January 2020

5 hot takes at the beginning of 2020

  • Google will be replaced at an ever increasing rate, probably by DuckDuckGo. I’ve switched to them full-time for the 3rd or 4th time, but this time feel no need to go back. DuckDuckGo has all the developer mindshare, and their growth is exponential. Already I’ve seen people do images search on Instagram instead of Google Images, and young people search Snapchat for recipes instead of Google. (Note from 2022: TikTok seems to be doing this)
  • Manufacturing, and having it close by, will become increasingly important again. So far we’ve said “let’s outsource this”, but we’re seeing the drag on innovation by not being able to make our own things close by. Tesla was incubated at Lotus in the UK because they have small workshops and supply chains. Phones are being made in Texas, I predict all nations will re-focus on making their own Shenzhen. Probably with mixed results, same as for the last decade everyone tried to copy Silicon Valley. (Note from 2022: See the Intel onshoring plan and the Inflation Reduction Act in congress)
  • Electric Vehicles, though that’s a pretty obvious one at this point. 6 months ago when the following article was written though, everyone was calling them crazy. Read it here.
  • Software as we know it is currently important but I believe will become increasingly commoditized and unimportant. Already no-code AI, web-apps and games like Roblox that help you build worlds code-free are becoming a thing. (Note from 2022: See Github Co-Pilot)
  • Cities will take the political and social lead away from states. See also here.