January 23, 2020

4 hot takes at the beginning of 2020

  • Google will be replaced at an every increasing rate by DuckDuckGo. I’ve switched to them full-time for the 3rd or 4th time, but this time feel no need to go back. DuckDuckGo has all the developer mindshare, and their growth is exponential. Possibly also Facebook and Apple who have been running on fumes for a while but I am less sure there. Their core products are not actively being made worse at the rate that Google’s is.
  • Manufacturing, and having it close-by, will become increasingly important again. So far we’ve said “let’s outsource this”, but we’re seeing the drag on innovation by not being able to make our own things close-by. Tesla was incubated in England’s Lotus because they still have small-scale workshops /supply chain ecosystem to deal with it. Phones being made in Texas, I predict all nations will re-focus on making their own Shenzhen. Probably with mixed results, same as for the last decade everyone tried to copy Silicon Valley.
  • Electric Vehicles, though that’s a pretty obvious one at this point. 6 months ago when the following article was written though, everyone was calling them crazy. Read it here.
  • Software as we know it is currently important but I believe will become increasingly commoditized and unimportant. Already no-code AI, web-apps and games are becoming a thing.
  • Cities will take over the political and social lead, in place of states. See also here.

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